タイの反政府デモ
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1 manolo 2014-01-28 16:10:09 [画像] [PC]

出典：ニューズウィーク日本版、「バンコク騒乱を読み解く6つのポイント」、2/4/2014、p.20

1-1.
　バンコクで毎年のように繰り返される反政府デモは、陽光降り注ぐビーチやスパイスの効いた料理、猥雑なナイトクラブと共に、もはやタイの「定番」の光景になってしまった。今も、昨年11月に始まった反政府デモが、デモ隊と警察官の双方に死傷者を出しながら続いている。政府は、先週、バンコクとその近郊に非常事態宣言を発令したが、今のところ強制排除は手控えている。この反政府デモでは、誰が何を求めているのか、今後はどう展開するのか。そして、タイでのバカンス計画は見直すべきか。タイ反政府デモを読み解くための基礎知識をまとめた。（p.20）
2 manolo 2014-01-28 16:30:27 [PC]

1-2.　【1. 反政府派の目標は？】
　反政府派が目指すのは、選挙で選ばれたインラック政権を引きずり降ろし、2月2日に予定されている総選挙を中止させた上で、選挙を経ない暫定政府を発足させること。汚職を根絶した後に選挙を行おうとしているが、腐敗を一掃できる保証はない。反政府は指導者のステープ元副首相も、クリーンな政治家とは言い難いからだ。

1-3. 【2. 反汚職だけが動機ではない】
　反政府デモは、有力政治家一家であるシナワット家に対する戦いという性格をもっている。現首相のインラックは、シナワット家の権力を固めてきたタクシン元首相の妹だ（現在、タクシンは汚職で実刑判決を受け、中東のドバイに逃れている）。この国の政治は伝統的にバンコク主導で動いてきたが、シナワット家はポピュリスト的政策により農村部で支持を拡大し、過去10年に選挙にことごとく勝利してきた。選挙で勝てない反シナワット家勢力が実力行使に出たのが、今回の反政府デモといえるだろう。

1-4.　【3. 貧困層の反乱ではない】
　デモには多くの層が参加しているが、中心は中・上流階級だ。抗議活動の現場にはお祭りムードが漂っている。スターバックスのコーヒーを片手に、スマートフォンでセルフィー（自分撮り）を楽しむ参加者も多い。

1-5.　【4. 軍事クーデターの可能性も】
　反政府派指導者たちは、軍が現政権を追い落として自分たちに権力を与えてくれることを期待している節がある。実際、軍事クーデターのうわさは絶えない。これまで軍はたびたびクーデターを起こしており、06年にはクーデターでタクシン政権を倒したこともある。しかし、軍部は自らが政権を担うことに消極的に見える。面倒な仕事には手を出したくないのだろう。

1-6.　【5. 内戦に発展する恐れも】
　選挙で選ばれた政権が引きずりおろされれば、激しい抗議活動が起きるだろう。「赤シャツ隊」と呼ばれるシナワット家支持グループはかなり闘争的だ。10年春には、バンコクの繁華街を占拠して治安部隊による強制排除に長く抵抗し続けた実績がある（最終的に100人近い死者を出した末に排除された）。
3 manolo 2014-01-28 16:38:08 [PC]

1-7.　【6. 旅行は中止すべき？】
　不安になるのは無理もないが、少なくとも現時点ではイメージほど危険ではない。昼間、デモ隊のバリケードは大抵少人数で守っているだけだ。警察がその気になれば簡単に排除できるが、取りあえずは静観している。夜になると、仕事を終えた反政府系の市民が集まってくるが、オフィスワーカーや高齢者、流行に敏感な若者など、武等派とは言い難い面々が中心だ。それに、バンコクの主要な国際空港や観光スポットの多くは、抗議活動の行われている地区からだいぶ離れている。ましてや、美しいビーチの周辺は平穏そのものだ。ニュースを見なければ、この国で政治的騒乱が起きていることに気付かないだろう。
4 manolo 2014-02-03 23:06:25 [PC]

出典： BBC News, “Q&A: Thailand anti-government protests”, January 29, 2014, http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-25149484

　Thailand has been hit by major protests after three years of relative calm. The BBC looks at the factors behind the protests and at what the demonstrators want.

2-1.
　What started the protests?

　Demonstrations kicked off in November after Thailand's lower house passed a controversial amnesty bill which critics said could allow former leader Thaksin Shinawatra to return without serving time in jail. Mr Thaksin, one of the most polarising characters in Thai politics, was ousted in a military coup in 2006. He now lives in self-imposed exile overseas after being convicted of corruption, but remains popular with many rural voters. The amnesty bill, which was proposed by his sister Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra's Pheu Thai Party, was eventually rejected by the Senate. However, anti-government protests continued and new demands emerged.

2-2. [Analysis: Protesters' challenge]
　Who are the protesters?

　Protest leader Suthep Thaugsuban wants the government to step down. The demonstrations are being led by Suthep Thaugsuban, a former Thai deputy prime minister who resigned from the opposition Democrat Party to lead the rallies. The protesters - who tend to be urban and middle-class voters - are united by their opposition to Mr Thaksin, and their belief that he is still controlling the current Pheu Thai government. Thaksin-allied parties have won the last five elections, because of their rural support base. Mr Suthep and his supporters say they want to wipe out the "political machine of Thaksin" and install an unelected "people's council" to reform the political system. The protesters say the government has been buying votes with irresponsible spending pledges aimed at its support base - thereby creating a flawed democracy and harming the Thai economy.
5 manolo 2014-02-03 23:09:14 [PC]

2-3. [Profile: Suthep Thaugsuban and Thailand's protesters]
　What have the protesters done?

　Thaksin Shinawatra remains a divisive figure in Thailand. About 100,000 protesters rallied in Bangkok on 24 November, when the campaign kicked off. The protests - which involved blockading government ministries - were largely peaceful for the first week but turned deadly when violence broke out near a pro-government red-shirt rally on 30 November. At least 10 people have been killed in various clashes since then. On 8 December, all opposition MPs in parliament resigned. Protesters said they would march on Government House, the prime minister's office, the next day. In response, Ms Yingluck called a snap election for 2 February. The opposition Democratic Party has said it will boycott the election. In recent weeks, protesters have disrupted electoral registration and blocked advance voting. They have also, since 13 January, blocked key road junctions in Bangkok in what they are calling a shutdown. The Election Commission has called for the polls to be delayed because of the ongoing unrest, but the government says they will go ahead. A state of emergency is in place in Bangkok and three surrounding provinces, but it is not clear to what extent this can be enforced, given the military's cool attitude towards Ms Yingluck's government.

2-4. [Thailand imposes state of emergency]
　What will happen next?

　The Thai government says that the 2 February polls will go ahead - but because of the opposition boycott plus the protesters' disruption to registration it is not clear if the election will return enough MPs for a quorum in parliament. Various legal moves could also potentially complicate the situation. On 8 January, the anti-corruption body said it would charge more than 300 politicians - mostly from the ruling party - over an attempt to make the Senate fully elected. This could ultimately lead to the lawmakers being banned from politics. The anti-corruption body also said on 16 January that it was investigating Ms Yingluck in connection with a controversial government rice subsidy scheme - a move that could potentially force Ms Yingluck from politics. Governments of Mr Thaksin's allies have been forced from power in the past by legal rulings. And the last election that was boycotted by the opposition, in 2006, was subsequently annulled.
6 manolo 2014-02-03 23:10:37 [PC]

2-5. [Thai PM probed over 'corrupt rice subsidy scheme']
　What about the government supporters?

　The "red-shirts" have mostly stayed away so far - but their return could trigger clashes The government the protesters are trying to oust won elections in 2011, with support from voters in mostly rural areas of the country, especially the north and north-east. So far the "red-shirts" - the government supporters who shut down parts of Bangkok in 2010 to protest against a government led by the current opposition party - have for the most part remained off the streets. But "red-shirt" leaders say they will take to the streets if the military ousts the current government. Observers fear that if they were to [decide] to protest, an escalation in violence would follow. In January, a prominent "red-shirt" leader was injured in a drive-by shooting, in what police said they believed was a politically-motivated attack.

2-6. [Inside Thailand's 'red villages']
　What impact will the protests have?

　Ms Yingluck warned early on that further protests could cause the economy to deteriorate. Protests in 2008 and 2010 hit Thailand's economy hard, especially the business and tourism sectors. This time, several countries have issued travel warnings for Thailand. But a more worrying concern is that once again Thailand is deeply divided, with the issue of Mr Thaksin and his role in the country's future an apparently unresolvable one - suggesting the cycle of instability will continue.
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